Bill's Bulletin Board
By Bill Rea

In 2003, the Green party went to the CRTC, trying to get its leader, Frank de Jong, included in the televised leaders' debate.

That effort failed, as well it should have, as CRTC concluded it had no right to backseat drive what is essentially an exercise in broadcast journalism.

Well, it seems a group of highly-placed broadcast execs, representing a variety of networks, are planning another debate for this current campaign, and de Jong is not being invited. So the party has launched an on-line petition, aimed at pressuring the people calling the shots for the debate to make room for their leader at the table.

I have no problem with people starting and circulating petitions, and the decision to sign such a document must always be left up to the individual. I certainly don't plan to sign it. And if this petition is sent to the people running the debate, I hope they will react the way I would like to think I would, were I in their shoes. Namely, I would study it with care and interest, then put the whole thing on some shelf and get back to the task of running a debate, hoping of course that de Jong would tune in and watch.

I know that the Green party has quite a following, which is growing from all the accounts I have read. And it could get larger. The fact is that voting Green is not something I have permanently ruled out. It's true that I have pretty well made up my mind how I'm going to vote next month (although my mind could change in the coming weeks), but I have on occasion toyed with the idea of voting Green, at least federally.

It appears to me the party has found a certain amount of focus over the last several years. There's evidence that it has tried to evolve from a movement to a party that might be interested in governing. A movement like Green is basically interested in little more that spouting platitudes and hugging trees. A party realizes there are other concerns in the electoral process, such as educating children, providing health care and trying to promote economic health and stability. As I stated, I believe the Green followers are trying to head in that direction, and theye would love to see their leader standing in the same company as McGuinty, Tory and Hampton. But the fact is, they haven't arrived, yet.

What makes de Jong so special? Ontario has a Communist party. I consulted its Web site a couple of weeks ago to see if any candidates were going to take the field in King, and came up empty. There's also the Family Coalition Party, which is running at least one candidate in King. Is anyone making a pitch for the leaders of these two outfits to be included in the debate? For that matter, is de Jong?

All three of these parties currently have the same number of seats in the provincial legislature, namely none. So what is it that entitles de Jong to be in the debate?

Reality kicks in at this point. Come the days immediately following Oct. 10, Lt.-Gov. David Onley is going to ask either Dalton McGuinty, John Tory or Howard Hampton to form a government. One of the other two is going to be regarded as leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition in the legislature. In the event on a minority government (a very distinct possibility at this stage), the third leader is going to take on the role of proverbial king-maker. And when it comes time to play out those roles, Frank de Jong is not going to be present.

Talk is the Green party will be putting up candidates in all the ridings of Ontario. As of this writing (Sunday morning), we are still awaiting word on who will carry the party's flag in Oak Ridges - Markham, but I'm confident someone will step forward.

I've been a journalist long enough to know it's dangerous to make bold predictions heading into an election. My ego still smarts when I reflect on the time I put predictions for an entire slate in a municipal campaign on the record, and got about 80 per cent of the calls wrong. But I'm prepared now to go out on a limb (a pretty secure limb, at the moment) and predict that assuming the Green party puts up a full ticket, it will elect not one member to Queen's Park. In fact, any Green candidates who pull in more than 10 per cent of the total vote in their ridings will be entitled to some substantial bragging rights, as far as I'm concerned.

It could be argued that including de Jong in the leaders' debate might make a difference, but I wouldn't be sold on that theory. Even if I were, it's not the job of media outlets to promote political parties to electoral prominence. For the purposes of the debate, their job is to present before the public the people who are most likely to influence post-election events. McGuinty, Tory and Hampton are going to be involved. De Jong is not.

The parties have to get to electoral prominence on their own.

Green is a growing movement, to be sure. But the fact that its growing points to one of its disadvantages; it's not yet grown. Children grow very rapidly, yet our society expects them to reach a certain level of growth (physical, mental, emotional, psychological, etc.) before they are allowed to do certain things, like drive, drink, work, vote, etc. The same standard must be set for political parties, if they wish to be treated the same as the established ones. Let us not forget that leaders of the Liberal, Progressive Conservative and New Democratic parties have been asked to form governments at various times over the last 20 years. Green leaders have received no such invitations.

I realize there's a question left hanging. At what point has a party earned the right to participate in a leaders' debate?

There's no simple answer to that.

I could see validity in an argument that electing one MPP might be sufficient. That would certainly be symbolic, and that elected member might actually carry some clout, especially in a minority government. But it's also true that accidents happen, with flukes and voter dissatisfaction sometimes swaying events. I don't believe Bob Rae and his Dew Democrats formed a government in 1990 because Ontario voters all of a sudden embraced socialism. There were other factors involved.

I'm not sure electing a single Green MPP would cut it, although it might be a psychological hurdle, possibly leading to another growth spurt for the party.

Electing four or five MPPs? That wouldn't be enough for party status in the legislature, but it would certainly be indicative of a certain levels of support around the province.

Ultimately, those taking part in a leaders' debate is going to be up to those who actually organize and run the debate. It is, after all, their party. And believe it or not, people in charge of media outlets really do care about their credibility, and they are going to be reluctant to publicly exclude people who really should be included.

If the current trends are maintained, we will eventually see the day when a Green party leader is invited to take part in a leaders' debate. And if the current trends are departed from, and Green support falls off, then maybe their participation in such debates was never meant to be.

Frankly, I think the former scenario is more likely, with Green support reaching the point where either Frank de Jong or one of his successors has to be included in a debate. They're not there yet, but I think there'll be a universal understanding of when that time has come. It will be when de Jong, or who ever, stops wasting time with online petitions and starts actively preparing for the encounter.

I'll be watching.