Fixed election dates - Big deal!

A bit of a milestone passed recently, although you could be forgiven if you missed it.

It's been determined that we now have less than a year to wait until the next provincial election. That is, of course assuming that Premier Dalton McGuinty keeps his promise to hold them every four years at predetermined dates, the way he promised not to raise taxes. But since he's already had legislation to that effect passed at Queen's Park, it's probably safe to assume that this time next year, we'll be discussing and dissecting the election results.

There are some, particularly in government, who say fixing election dates is a great move on the part of McGuinty. Indeed, Prime Minister Stephen Harper is putting forth similar legislation, and it already has the support of at least one Liberal MP, none other than Lui Temelkovski of Oak Ridges - Markham.

True, ideas like this are attractive for any government

to push. They are perceived to be beneficial, although we contend that perception is erroneous. They also offer an easy way for a government to appear it is doing something productive, when in fact it is doing next to nothing.

There is no pressing advantage to fixing elections for every four years over what we have in place now, largely because we already have elections more or less every four years, at least when we have majority governments. True, prime ministers or premiers have a bit of flexibility, such as whether to have a spring or fall campaign. They generally try to stay away from elections in the summer (although there have been exceptions) and a winter campaign is usually the mark of a minority government that has fallen.

It's also true that some governments have called elections well before the four-year mark. David Peterson tried it 16 years ago, and profoundly regretted it by the time the votes were counted. Jean Chretien tried it too, but he got away with it largely because he was facing fragmented opposition, courtesy of the Reform party and Canadian Alliance.

And the current situation also allows governments to stay in power up to five years, but it's seldom they last that long. A government that goes the full five years is one that's usually afraid to go the voters sooner. The ability to delay is not that great a benefit for a government. If it's out of favour after four years, it's not likely the electorate is going to be forgiving after five.

There are some who might argue that a government could call what is commonly known as a "snap election." They would do so at their peril. Political parties, whether they be in government or opposition, need some preparation before going to the polls. If it's a minority government, the various parties have to be ready for the government to fall at any time, and everyone knows that. One could argue that a party forming a majority government could call a quick election and catch its opponents

off guard. Not very likely. The governing party has to prepare too, and such preparations cannot be done in secret. Invariably, when the head of a government announces an election dated, it's one of the worst kept secrets around.

So a year from now, expect McGuinty to brag a bit about how his government has fixed election dates in Ontario. Expect some of the same from Harper when he sends us to the polls. But forgive those who yawn and ask what the big deal is. They'll be the ones making the real point.