Lumber agreement with States could force early election
By Bill Rea

Canada has reached an agreement with the United States on softwood lumber which could, conceivably, topple the minority Conservative government of Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

Neither of the two local MPs were ready to predict on how likely that possibility might be.

"On April 27, I informed the House of Commons that Canada's New Government had reached an agreement in principle with the United States to resolve the longstanding softwood lumber dispute," Harper said in a statement issued by his office last week, adding the agreement delivers stable and predictable access to the U.S. market, repayment of $4 billion of disputed duties, provincial and regional flexibility and certainty, as opposed to costly litigation.

"The agreement in principle quickly won support from the major exporting provinces of British Columbia, Quebec and Ontario, as well as from Atlantic Canada and a significant percentage of Canada's softwood industry," the PM stated. "Indeed, hundreds of communities and hundreds of thousands of Canadians whose livelihoods depend on this critical sector welcomed the agreement in principle as an important step toward protecting jobs and prosperity.

Harper also announced this matter will be considered one of confidence in the government, once it comes before the House of Commons for approval, meaning the opposition parties could gang up and defeat it and the government, forcing an election.

He stressed that this agreement has the backing of two national governments, all major s o f t w o o d - p r o d u c i n g provinces and a clear majority of Canadian producers.

The fact that it's seen as a matter of confidence should not come as a surprise, according to York - Simcoe MP Peter Van Loan. This is a ways and means motion, he said, meaning it has to be considered one of confidence.

"We're pretty happy with the agreement," he added, pointing out it has the support of the major softwood producing provinces, as well as many members of the industry.

But Van Loan wouldn't speculate on the chances that the agreement could get through the House.

"That's totally out of our hands," he declared, adding it's up to the opposition MPs. "I hope some of them support it, because its good for Canada."

But he also said they are ready to fight an election, if it comes to that.

"We always have to be ready in a minority parliament, because this could happen any time on any issue," he remarked, adding the government is not looking for an election at this time. If the opposition members are looking that way, he said they had better realize there are consequences.

When it comes to being ready for an election, Oak

Ridges - Markham MP Lui Temelkovski said he wasn't, and neither is the country.

"I don't think Canadians want to go to an election at this time at all," he remarked, adding three elections in less than three years is too much. "It's not worth a billion dollars, that's for darn sure."

Temelkovski was also wondering what had changed in the last couple of months. He said there was a time not long ago when he was sure the lumber industry wasn't ready to support this deal.

"I find it interesting that they weren't supporting it a month ago, and now they are, if they are," he remarked.

"I'm skeptical that they would put it as a vote of confidence," he added, pointing out representatives of the lumber industry appeared before the parliamentary committee on international trade (on which Temelkovski sits), and stated the deal was not acceptable to them.

He said he's puzzled what Harper could have done to get them on side. "I'm not sure what kind of sugar he put on this pie, because it wasn't sweet before for the industry," he commented