A fall federal election is not impossible, but not likely either

The summer, that seemed to go by all too quickly, is over. The kids are back at school, baseball and soccer are just about done and some kids have already laced on hockey skates. And municipal politicians are getting ready to seek various offices early in November.

Add to that the possibility that we could have a federal election this fall, and we are looking at the prospect of a very busy fall.

The federal government has struck a deal with the Americans on softwood lumber, and this agreement has obtained the approval of governments of the major softwood exporting provinces, at least according to Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

"The agreement in principle quickly won support from the major exporting provinces of British

Columbia, Quebec and Ontario, as well as from Atlantic Canada and a significant percentage of Canada's softwood industry," the PM stated. "Indeed, hundreds of communities and hundreds of thousands of Canadians whose livelihoods depend on this critical sector welcomed the agreement in principle as an important step toward protecting jobs and prosperity."

Harper has also announced that when the agreement goes before the House of Commons for a vote, it will be considered a matter of confidence in the government. That means if the opposition gangs up to fight it (a distinct possibility with a minority ruling the House), then the government could fall.

Actually, as York- Simcoe MP Peter Van Loan

observed, a vote on an issue like this is automatically one of confidence, so it really isn't up to Harper. But the fact remains that the government could fall and we'll have elections at two levels of government at roughly the same time.

A possibility, but not likely.

For one thing, the Liberals are in no shape to fight a general election at this time. They don't even have a leader. Paul Martin excused himself from the job in his election night remarks, and there are 10 other Grits who are currently jockeying for the position. A winner is slated to be picked late this year.

It could be said the Liberals would be in deep trouble if they had to go into a campaign without a leader, if not for the fact they were

put in that position in late 1979 and early '80, when the minority government of Joe Clark fell. That time, the Grits prevailed upon Pierre Trudeau to carry the flag one last time. The result was we got another Liberal majority for four more years.

Could something like that happen again? While not impossible, we would submit it's unlikely.

Canadians, while they may not be enamored with Harper, seem willing to give him a fair chance to see what he can do. He's also doing fairly well in the poles right now, although he's been a politician long enough to know the mood of the electorate can change rapidly.

We believe Canadians will resent being sent to the polls for a second time in

one year over lumber dispute. That being the case, if it were to happen, who would they blame? If both sides stand firm, they could both be accused of being obstinate. Either side could find itself facing electoral wrath.

Without a loud outcry from people prominent in the softwood industry (and there's been so such outcry yet), the opposition would be able to offer very little justification if they forced an election now.

We think that's the simple reality.

What, for a while, looked like a national game of political chicken will probably be old news by the time Parliament comes to deal with the agreement.

Just as well. The municipal elections should keep us all busy enough.