Speaker delves into demographics at Country Day School
By Bill Rea

Canada is capable of competing on the global economic stage, but to do so, it needs an educated work force.

In addition, the members of that work force have to be motivated and have the confidence to be innovative, as well as be able to follow though.

That was one of the messages futurist, demographer and economist David Baxter had for an audience of about 100 when he spoke recently at Country Day School.

"It isn't going to be what we've done in the past," declared the executive director of the Urban Futures Institute.

Demographics made up an important part of Baxter's address.

He pointed out the population of York Region is growing at about five per cent annually, but that is expected to taper down to roughly two per cent by 2031. That is still going to be faster growth than is anticipated for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) as a whole. Baxter said it will only be about one per cent in '31, adding some parts aren't going to experience much growth at all. Mississauga, he said, has built out.

He went on to say the GTA is growing faster than the rest of Ontario, especially the resource-based communities, And Ontario, along with British Columbia and Alberta, are the only provinces experiencing growth.

One of the things this shows, Baxter said, is that Canada is an urban country. It still sells resources, but requires relatively few people to produce them.

As well, he said the country is growing slower than at any other time in its history. The population will up by about another 20 per cent by 2031, while York's will have increased by about 73 per cent.

Nationally, he said there's not likely to be much change in the population younger than 40 years of age; approximately two per cent over the nest 25 years. That means there will be a a relatively constant work force.

But the number of people older than 65 in Canada will increase by eight per cent over that period, 25 per cent in Ontario and approximately 50 per cent in York.

"Who are all these old people coming to York?" he asked. The answer, he quickly said, is they are today's 40-year-olds, adding York will need growth to deal with the growth.

Baxter also said there will be about a 42 per cent growth in the school-age population in York, and it will be about eight per cent over Ontario. He pointed out that represents the next generation of workers and taxpayers.

Baxter used an example of the Canadian Barbecue Manufacturers' Association, which has called for a tariff on barbecues made in China. That's because the Chinese can make them cheaper. He added trade officials in Canada have voiced support for a 15 per cent surtax to be imposed for three years, but he pointed out It takes time for an industry to change. Canadians are not going to start building cheaper barbecues that soon.

There are a lot of outside issues for Canadians to deal with. One of them is the fact that Canadian universities are going to produce some 170,000 graduates this year,

while Chinese universities will send forth about 3.8 million grads. Simple arithmetic means those Canadian graduates will be competing with the top 4.5 per cent coming out of China in the work they do in the global market place.

He quipped that means the Canadian graduates will have to figure out how to build better barbecues.

Baxter also noted that some could argue that Canadian universities are better than those in China, but the weakest Canadian grad will still be up against one of the top 4.5 per cent from China.

Baxter pointed out there is real change happening in the world order these days. It would have happened sooner, but countries like China and India weren't really interested in global competition. Now that they are getting interested points to the reality that North America only represents about five per cent of the world.

Baxter addressed the fact that Canada has a labour supply problem coming, and it needs to be addressed.